True Catch Rate reception percentage based solely on catchable targets. Comparing Alfred Morris and Roy Helus 2013 usage help to illuminate the utility of this metric. Who are some hyper-athletic sleepers we might have missed in our first series of articles? He has good size (62, 205 pounds) and his SPORQ score is near-elite (90.2). Zeirlien also highlights his bend saying : " Tremendous lower-body flexion for 45-degree edge bend ", We've seen how important having that bend around the corner can be, and. On the other hand, a 20-yard reception on 3rd and 10 at midfield nets only 3 PPR fantasy points, but it turns a likely blown drive into at least a field goal opportunity. Catch Rate captures a players ability to secure the football in all situations regardless of the level of difficulty by dividing the total receptions by total targets. RAS is provided free of charge, both the program and most of the data. It consists of 50 multiple choice questions to be answered in 12 minutes. Among WRs, his 115.3 Speed Score ranks behind only D.K. I could have penalized him for this fact but chose not to weight actually has a slightly negative correlation to fantasy production for TEs. But the main point is everyone calls him slight but no one has seen him play with the added weight. His SPORQ score of 87.1 ranks 11th-best in the class. A pace above 2.50 is considered a very fast pace and under 2.00 is a very slow pace. Dillon is a 97th percentile adjusted SPARQ athlete., Overall, this is a decent running back class in terms of depth J.K. Dobbins opted to not participate, but the other top prospects did (Jonathan Taylor, Cam Akers, DAndre Swift, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire) and they all finished as above-average Adjusted SPARQ athletes A.J. Browns middling SPORQ score was a little surprising to me. Although my Pre-Combine model liked Hawkins and Jefferson quite a bit, both fell in this phase of the process. Air Yards for quarterbacks, Air Yards is the total throw depth, and Completed Air Yards is total passing yards minus yards after the catch. Green/Julio Jones level of prospect for fantasy. Jalen Camps 29 bench press reps are the most by any WR since 2000, and two more than the next-closest WR. Jeudy's 105 SPARQ is, for example, 7% worse than SPARQ has formed a broad, non-exclusive partnership with Velocity Sports Performance to provide certified SPARQ Testing at all of their centers. Zierlein's biggest knock on him is his skinny build. 2005-2023 CBS INTERACTIVE ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. The formula is (weight*200) / (40-time^4). John Bates weight-adjusted 3-Cone ranks 22nd-best since 2000. But he does have projected draft capital on his side (Dane Brugler is projecting Round 2 or Round 3). Give the RAS calculator a try and view the score! He should be consistently mocked within the first 20 picks now Most of the Day 2 corners tested near historical averages, except for Damon Arnette (26th percentile) and Cameron Dantzler (5th percentile) who disappointed versus expectations. Both are elite times at his size (61, 232 pounds). The Cincinnati Bengals have finally answered at least one part of the question at the running back position by taking Illinois Chase Brown in the fifth round of the 2023 NFL draft. He ranks behind Robert Griffin III (126.9) and Michael Vick (119.5), and just ahead of Cam Newton (114.72) and Vince Young (113.7). In other words, for a particular game to count against his fantasy points per game, he must have had a passing attempt, carry, or target. Kadarius Toneys 175.5 ranks 11th-best. Thats also a major red flag. Their time is measured in seconds and transferred into SPARQ Points. Imathorbhebhes 46.5-inch vert jump is a new record, and 1.5 inches more than the next-closest WR. Language links are at the top of the page across from the title. The time in between each beep (bar the constant 10second recovery) decreases gradually. Target Share measures the percentage of all passing targets directed at a particular wide receiver or tight end in games that that receiver was involved in the passing attack. Still, he ranks as my TE6 in this class, and Id consider taking him in Round 5 of a TE Premium Superflex rookie draft on the off chance hes the next Robert Tonyan. From 2018-2019, he led the team, averaging 54.4 receiving YPG, just ahead of sixth-round pick Donovan Peoples-Jones (same age), who averaged 43.8 YPG. Is that why hes now expected to be drafted on Day 2? Production Premium compares the outcome of all pass attempts, carries, and targets to league-average outcomein those same game situations (yard line, down, and distance). PointsBet is our Official Sports Betting Partner and we may receive compensation if you place a bet on PointsBet for the first time after clicking our links. Watch live streaming. The metric assumes 1 point for every ten yards rushing or receiving, 1 point for every 25 passing yards, 1 point per reception (PPR), and 4 points for quarterback passing touchdowns. Individuals with high BMIs tend to be built more like a bowling ball, an ideal stature for an NFL running back. Expected Touchdowns the total number of touchdowns the average NFL player would expect to score based on the field position and game situation of every pass attempt, touch, and target. This number measures a players short area quickness and balance and correlates with an ability to avoid tackles and compile yards before contact. Zach Wilson averaged 38.4 (2018), then 33.7 (2019), and then 29.4 (2020) rushing YPG in each of his three seasons at BYU. and this is a very comprehensive list. Jaret Patterson (ADP: RB11) posted a 11.1 SPORQ score. There are also other positions not listed here, but can be found Imatorbhebhes 24 bench reps rank 7th-most. His incredible flexion might just be the thing that sets him apart. Okudah is clearly the top corner and will be among my top non-quarterback prospects this season C.J. For calculation purposes, power ball throw wasconverted into bench press to ensure that all input factors aligned with specificNFL Scouting Combine events. Age is calculated for each player as of September 2020. This service is intended for adult audiences. For instance, last season, he ranked top-7 in both missed tackles forced per touch (0.30) and yards after contact per attempt (4.04). Thanks for sharing. To view the average RAS for every team by draft year, click here! Hell have to improve at his Pro Day to regain his Day 1 status Terrell Lewis and Yetur Gross-Matos did okay in the drills they participated in, but they didnt run the forty Luckily, Jabari Zuniga, Casey Toohill, James Smith-Williams, and Carter Coughlin all finished inside the 80th percentile as above-average athletes for the position. Kyle Pitts and Jacob Harris both ran a 4.40 40-yard-dash at their respective Pro Days. Hes now my TE5, within the same tier as Jordan. Hopefully he can improve at his Pro Day, or its impossible to give him a top-10 overall grade. This time is taken and put into "SPARQ Points", which were added to determine the athlete's overall rating. For instance, here is a video of Waddle racing speedster Henry Ruggs in the 40 (which resulted in a tie). Definitely deserves a closer look. Really intrigued by him. He isnt quite as unathletic as the other two, and he has better expected draft capital (RB7, Round 4) than either RB. Tremble has decent size (at 63, 241 pounds) and is easily the best run blocker in this class, but hes also a player every production model is going to miss on. WebDiscover the 2023 NFL Combine results here. They provided training videos and tips from a number of top speed, strength and conditioning coaches on their website. Elijah Mitchell skyrocketed up my ranking with an elite SPORQ score (94.9). No guarantees are made for any specific outcome. One of my favorite day three players. Oregon went to the 3-4 in 2017/18 and he moved back to OLB. Both players went undrafted. I have Friermuth ranked as my TE2 in this class in a tier alongside Long. Helus snap share was not significantly less than Morris, but Washington gave the majority of opportunities to Morris, while Helu was asked to do a lot of blitz pickup work as opposing defenses relentlessly blitzed Robert Griffin III when Helu was on the field. Production Premium also takes into account time remaining and game score to account for non-standard situations such as 2-minute drills, clock-milking, and garbage time. Catch Radius first discussed by Scott Smith in a piece titled The Catch Radius Project: In Search of Better TD Production, the metric incorporates a players ability to cover ground as well as his ability to get vertical in order to score a players capacity to reaching the football in a 3-dimensional space. Although officially listed with a DNQ SPORQ score, I actually boosted Waddle in my rankings. Positive values indicate a player touchdown exceeded expectations due to efficiency and good fortune. It makes him an obvious fit for this team and possible replacement for Dupree next year. Positive values indicate that a player is more efficient than the average player, while negative values indicate that a player is less efficient than his peers with similar opportunities in similar situations. Expected Points Added (EPA) measures the value of individual plays by calculating the expected points scored based on the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play. 23 Most Interesting Things I Heard At Combine, how little athleticism matters for safety. You can find this chart here, along with where all of these players rank since 2000. Weighted Opportunities surfaced by Scott Barrett in his work for Pro Football Focus, this metric calibrates total opportunities by discounting carries and enhancing the value of targets based on the average fantasy points generated by each type of touch. Athletes in the 20-30 range possess solid functional intelligence. You can find that stat and our historical Combine database here. Who has the most serious red flags? The athlete goes into a balanced crouch with their arms behind them to help propel them, then they swiftly jump out into the air, out of their crouch, and the pad measures their height in inches based on the amount of time in the air, between the two points of contact. The best of the best, the most elite athletes, will score between 130 Reportedly, Harris has been clocked at 4.45 in the 40-yard-dash and 3.7 in the short shuttle. Catch Radius affects a players ability to succeed in the red zone, particularly on fade routes and 50-50 balls. He ended that season totaling 568 yards from scrimmage and seven total touchdowns, which compared favorably to fourth-year junior Darius Slaytons 670 yards and five touchdowns. Boyd, Felton, and Williams are now fully off my board. to back it up - even against top competition. This means that a 0.0 z-score and WebThe SPARQ is a rating system designed to measure sport-specific athleticism. Really intrigued by him. Overall, this is a top heavy linebacker class, but there are some athletic sleepers to be had on Days 2 and 3 Isaiah Simmons rightfully called it a day after running a 4.39 forty, which locked in a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ score. What wildly increased his value was putting on 21 pounds since the end of the season and then posting the numbers he did with that extra weight. Athleticism Score summarizes a players workout metrics and normalizes for size. College Dominator Rating first outlined by Frank DuPont in the book Game Plan, the college dominator rating represents a players market share or his percentage of his teams offensive production. That ranks 9th-worst of 598 qualifiers since 2000. Agility Score Agility Score is simply the sum of a players 20-Yard Short Shuttle time and 3-Cone Drill times. I concluded the article saying basically this. Still, his production profile is strong enough that he didnt at all fall in my rankings despite just missing the 50th percentile benchmark. Breakout Age the younger a person is when he/she first becomes a leader in their respective field, the more likely that person is to go on to become *phenom*enal at their craft. Frank Darby (ADP: WR26) posted a 29.6 SPORQ score. In yesterdays article we asked the question, How much does athleticism matter? The answer to that question was somewhere around 2,500 words long, but in short, athleticism is pretty overrated from a fantasy perspective. Because Nikes actual SPARQ formula is not public, we compared publicallyavailable SPARQ scores to their related input factors, reverse-engineered anapproximation of the SPARQ formula, and then applied the formula to eachplayers workout metrics. Players with one or the other (with production mattering more than athleticism) were somewhere in between. Elijah Mitchell and Travis Etienne both posted a broad jump of 128, which ranks 22nd-best since 2000. Looks explosive. Metcalf (12.97), Chase Claypool (124.7), and Jazz Ferguson (115.8) since 2016. Both Matt Ryan and Giovanni Carmazza scored a 32. For reference, Speed Score, 40-time, and the 3-Cone (in order) were the three most important events for shorter WRs. Wes Huber has long been pounding the table for Sermon, and this was exactly what we needed to see from him in order to break into that second tier. National training companies include CATZ (the Competitive Athlete Training Zone) and Velocity Sports Performance. You can search for any player For tight ends and running backs, a 15% Dominator Rating is necessary to qualify for a breakout designation. Hayden Winks. The tests were designed to test the skills and athleticism demanded by each sport. Rondale Moore was heavily penalized due to his short stature (57), but helped make up some ground with some absurd numbers in the 40, Vert, 3-Cone, and Shuttle. Theres a chance Fehoko gets drafted on Day 2 (Mel Kiper Jr. has him going in Round 2), while Camp, McMath, Strachan, and Imatorbhebhe are all longshots to get drafted before Round 7, if at all, Camp led Georgia Tech in receiving yards last year, averaging 46.3 YPG in their run-heavy offense (20.9% YMS). A comprehensive review of the rationale behind the VOS metric is available here: Introducing: Value Over Stream (VOS). DeVonta Smith on the other hand Smith elected not to workout at Alabamas Pro Day. And Smiths BMI is the 9th-lowest by any Combine WR since at least 2000, while Jackson ranks 40th-lowest. Referred to here as Target Premium, it is the percentage of additional fantasy points per target that a wide receiver or tight end generates over and above the other pass receivers on his team. Well answer each of those questions in todays article. Smith still ranks quite high by projected draft capital (WR3, Round 1), so the NFL doesnt seem to be as concerned with Smiths athleticism as they (presumably) were with Tyler Johnsons. Dane Brugler is projecting him to be drafted in Round 6, a full round later than Harris. Now that there have been some significant changes Fantasy Points Per Attempt measures quarterback fantasy points in the context of passing opportunities by dividing total fantasy points by passing attempts. By Speed Score Pitts 130.7 ranks 2nd-best (behind Davis), while Harris moves to 29th-best since 2000. Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP: RB10) posted a 46.4 SPORQ score. Like I said, Moore was penalized due to his height, but whatever reduction I gave him (via SPORQ score) was always going to be wholly arbitrary. Remember NIKE developed the SPARQ with three goals in mind: 1) To sell stuff, 2) To The breakout age for wide receivers is defined by their age at the beginning of the college football season when they first posted a Dominator Rating at or above 20% (unless an or other extenuating circumstances prevented the player from playing a full complement of offensive snaps). Terrace Marshall (ADP: WR6) was another big winner. Elijah Mitchell ran a 4.33 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day. and this is a very comprehensive list. Just note, I was primarily shooting for only the most favorable comparisons in each instance. The total time taken until the two warnings are given, i.e. Going to look into him a bit more, but he played against weak competition. From an athletic-standpoint, only Vernon Davis ranks higher by SPORQ (of 375 qualifiers since 2000). Wex might be right. To assist with site load times, the main page will now only show the 2023 class. In todays article well be breaking down the 2021 class by SPORQ score. Route Participation - Indicates the percentage of total pass plays that the player ran a route in game when he was active. At 210 pounds, Kene Nwangwus 121.71 Speed Score ranks best in this class and 15th-best since 2000, just ahead of Jonathan Taylor (121.70). 1 WR and/or a high caliber contributor. Yards Created are accrued after the running back's first evaded tackle. Percentile Rank physical attributes and workout metrics include an overall percentile rank (100 being the best possible score) in parenthesis. Neither DeVonta Smith nor Jaylen Waddle participated in their workouts at the Alabama Pro Day. Albert O was the only tight end to finish above the 75th percentile level Hunter Bryant, Harrison Bryant, and Jared Pinkney watched their stocks drop with sub-20th percentile athleticism. Negative values indicate a player underperformed touchdown expectations due to inefficient play and bad luck. He's one of the rare outside WRs in this class, with 98% of his career receiving yards coming out wide. Anthony Schwartz ran a 4.25 40-yard-dash at his Pro Day. This post was edited by footballcorner 4 years ago. Overall, the safety class lacks a true blue-chip prospect, but there were a few athletic freaks to round out the Day 2 options Specifically, Kyle Dugger (99th percentile), Jeremy Chinn (98th), and Tanner Muse (91st) were borderline rare athletes for their size. They must proceed to thrust outward, landing in a push-up position. If we called him a WR, hed lead this class and rank 10th-best since 2000 (99.0). I didnt think the tape was good, and the athleticism was really bad Albert Okwuegbunam crushed the weight-adjusted forty, and then called it a day (probably because he has below-average agility). Although hes still RB2 behind Harris in my personal rankings, that gap is now slightly closer, and Etienne looks much more like the truly special RB prospect I thought he would be. Prior to the height-based adjustment, he ranked 6th-best. Accuracy Rating grades the accuracy each of throw on a 1-10 scale. Metcalf. This means that a 0.0 z-score and 50.0 percentile w. Donations like these helped give me the support I needed to provide online every player with a qualified RAS, but if we can get more then I may be able to set up the site to allow you to search more dynamically and even run cards of your own directly from the site. He ranks 17th-best in burst score (162.5), five spots ahead of Briley Moore (160.5). Hayden Winks is an NFL and NFL Draft writer for NBC Sports Edge. Elite athleticism and has the production. For example, it assigns a premium to a completed pass that earns a first down at the quarterback's own 20-yard-line with 30 seconds left in the game. Zeirlien also highlights his bend saying : Im still trying to figure out why my Pre-Combine model liked Anthony Schwartz so much (Pre-Combine WR11). Youre not fading that. Rondale Moores 6.68 ranks 50th-best. I urge you to review my Pre-Combine rankings and analysis, which you can read here. Snap Share The percentage of total offensive plays that the player was on the field for his team. Hes a small school WR (Division II), hailing from the University of Charleston, which didnt have a football season in 2020. All have good projected draft capital behind them, and, interestingly, even Atwell. Follow our 2023 NFL Combine tracker, top performers, participants, live results and commentary. In the Kneeling Power Ball Toss, an athlete must kneel with both knees on a flat surface while raising a 2 or 3 kilogram medicine / power ball over their head. Pat Freiermuth elected not to participate in the position drills at his Pro Day, as hes still recovering from a shoulder injury. Fantasy Points Per Game the average number of fantasy points that a player has scored in game where he had a point scoring opportunity. However, hes 22.8 years old and never ranked higher than 4th on the team in receiving yards prior to last season, McMath was a one-year starter for LSU, understandably buried in the depth chart behind some elite WRs. Tommy Tremble was missing from our Pre-Combine top-7. This would rank tied with Marshall for 2nd-best since 2000. The Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery Test is a test measuring an athlete's aerobic power and execution upon the changing of direction. How to read this: Jeffrey Okudah is a 96th percentile Adjusted SPARQ athlete.. Simi Fehoko (115.3) and Jalen Camp (115.3) are two of only 46 WRs since 2000 to record a Speed Score of 115.0 or better. The 4.44 40-yard-dash helped make up some ground, but he still profiles as only an average athlete for the position. Here are the results of the 2020 NFL Draft Class: How to read this: A.J. Danny Pinter, Damien Lewis, and Matt Hennessy looked good out there But its important to remember that athleticism is a very small portion of an interior linemans total evaluation. Elijah Moore just missed the mark (4.00). Mitchell's 40 time, coupled with his performances in the vertical jump, the agility shuttle and the kneeling power ball toss, earned him a score of 154.47, which earned EPA helps fantasy gamers understand the players that actually help an NFL team win games. Total Best Ball Points Added aggregates a player's total points scored above this quantified weekly threshold over the course of the season. Athletes scoring in the 30-50 range are considered smart. To qualify as a slot receiver on any given play, a receiver must be lined up inside and covered up by a outside receiver in either three or four-receiver sets. Stevenson, who I liked even more than my model did, also fell, but not as far. Note that the NFL% and z-score columns refer to the NFL positional averages and not to the draft positional averages. VOS also incorporates a bust rate coefficient to throttleeach player'sVOS according to the fragility and subsequentuncertainty of forecasting the annual fantasy point output of players at his position. Looking back at my top-5 RBs, all except Najee Harris (DNQ) hit the necessary thresholds to retain their rankings. Jake Funks 6.71 3-Cone ranks 13th-best since 2000, and, if weight-adjusted, 15th-best since 2000. Positive values indicate teams are often playing with a lead. Pitts 129.0 broad jump ranks 8th-best since 2000. He, alongside a few other of the industrys best talent evaluators and NFL Draft prognosticators, played a key role in helping me calculate an important but ultimately minor variable in this phase of the process expected draft capital. Last year, Tyler Johnson (whom my Pre-Combine model loved) elected not to participate in any event at the Combine. Some Results. The SPARQ Magazine (Summer of 2008) also noted that the highest Basketball SPARQ rating score recorded for hoops was 89.70 by Brandan Wright, a 6' 9" forward who plays for the Golden State Warriors. Also notable was the score of 86.80 recorded by NCAA All-American Derrick Rose. A.J. Saddled with poor QB-play, Collins didnt do much in three seasons at Michigan, before sitting out in 2020, totaling just 78 catches, 1,388 yards, and 13 scores over this span. Kyle Pitts. Worse yet, Smith is listed at 60 and 170 pounds. College Dominator Rating is not relevant for the quarterback position. He had turned 18 just three days prior. Dyami Brown (ADP: WR11) posted a 49.5 SPORQ score. Production Premium isolates a players situation-agnostic efficiency. If you disagree, thats fine and I totally understand the logic there. You can search for any player form 1987 to 2023 here! Isaiah Simmons rightfully called it a day after running a 4.39 forty, which locked in a 99th percentile Adjusted SPARQ score. Running backs and wide receivers are held to a different standard as times of 4.50 or below are considered fast for RBs and WRs. Fehoko (64, 222 pounds) is the most-exciting of the bunch (WR15 in my rankings). Dantzler needs to improve his scores at his Pro Day or hes cancelled. Note that the NFL% and z-score columns refer to the NFL positional averages and not to the draft positional averages. Where do they rank by SPORQ score (something akin to a composite athleticism score)? " Tremendous lower-body flexion for 45-degree edge bend ". If the athlete does not reach the start line in time, a warning is given, and the test is completed when two warnings are given. Yards Created originated by Graham Barfield on his Fantasy Game Theory blog, his "Introduction to Yards Created"piece defines yards created as all yards generated above and beyond what was blocked. Target Premium Rich Hribar coined the term Target Multiplier in an XN Sports Fantasy Football: 2013 WR Review article. For perspective, in their best collegiate seasons, Lamar Jackson averaged 24.2 rushing FPG, Taysom Hill averaged 19.8, Jalen Hurts averaged 18.7, Kyler Murray averaged 12.8, Josh Allen averaged 8.1, and Joe Burrow averaged 7.6. For wide receivers and tight ends, Air Yards are total target distance from the line of scrimmage to the catch point, and Completed Air Yards represents total receiving yards minus yards after the catch. Copyright 2020 . 2020 Adjusted SPARQ Scores (Offense) SPARQ does a great job of analyzing overall athleticism, but I showed how little it means for projecting NFL success Best Comparable Player aggregates physical attributes, college production, workout metrics, and NFL productivity and efficiency (when available) to find each players most similar peer at his position. Both Dan Marino and Vince Young scored a 15. Jaelon Darden (ADP: WR19) posted a 18.3 SPORQ score. If his frame can handle the weight and build on his strength, he might, turn into something. Follow him on Twitter @HaydenWinks. Thats about as official as these numbers are going to get this year. Note that the NFL% and z-score columns refer to the NFL positional averages and not to the draft positional averages. Jacob Harris 173.5 burst score ranks best ever by a TE, and would rank 17th-best among WRs. According to my Pre-Combine Model, Pitts is the best TE prospect to come out since at least 2014, and maybe the best TE prospect ever. For WRs and TEs, we add a height and weight premium. In North Carolinas run heavy offense, Brown hit 1,000 receiving yards in back-to-back seasons with 20+ yards per reception in both years. Both Ryan Leaf and Rich Gannon scored a 27. Lifetime Value The featured player valuation metric on Dynasty Dominator mobile app, RotoUnderworld's Lifetime Value approximates a player's fantasy points scoring potential above replacement for the remainder of their career. For QBs, PlayerProfiler adds a height premium. It will help. The SPARQ Rating was a sport-specific assessment of athleticism. The aggregate Lifetime Value is calculated using recent NFL opportunity, productivity, and efficiency metrics for veteran players as well as prospect profile metrics such as draft capital, college production, and athleticism for young players and prospects. Thats where Adjusted SPARQ comes in. This metric is especially useful when examining the impact of a quarterback upgrade on a wide receivers future production. Brown was compared favorably to Stefon Diggs by Dane Brugler and was projected by Mel Kiper Jr. to be selected early in Round 2 (WR8). Williams (0.4 years older than Schwartz) averaged 64.3 YPG through three seasons at Auburn, compared to Schwartzs 43.4 YPG. For RBs, we add a BMI premium. If Tremble is going to find fantasy success at the next level, hes going to have to be an outlier in the same way Drew Sample and George Kittle were (in college both were A+ blockers without much usage in the passing game). Is he more Sample (68.0) or Kittle (94.9)? Couldn't agree more. (So, maybe the NFL isnt as concerned with his low weight as I am.) Tremble is fairly athletic, posting a 76.3 SPORQ score, but isnt quite on Kittles level. I like Maxx Crosby as a mid- to late-round prospect. The best score in the history of the NFL was Harvard graduate Ryan Fitzpatricks 48. This stat was introduced and fully outlined in the book The Hidden Game of Footballby Bob Carroll, Pete Palmer, and John Thorn. turn into something. When a given players supporting cast changes (via trade or free agency), this metric is particularly helpful, because it measures that players capabilities across league-average situations.

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